As a manager of a company you are given 2 estimates for the annual firm’s profits: 1) Estimate A predicting that the mean profit would be between $1mil and $1.5 mil which is a 95% confidence interval; 2) Estimate B that the annual profits are between $1.2 mil and $1.4 mil, a 93% confidence interval. Which of the two estimates is more accurate and why?

Answer and Explanation:

A confidence interval determines the probability that a range of values(e.g-given a large data set )has the true parameter. Example, to find mean of height of 30+ men, our confidence interval will say that there is 96% confidence that the mean height of 30+ men is between 5ft and 6ft. While confidence intervals, narrow or broad with high or low significance levels may not be akin to accuracy, it will only help to determine the precision or otherwise of our estimate. For example, if confidence interval is narrow as in second option and confidence level is lower, it only narrows down our options to ascertain the true mean or parameter we are investigating and doesn't exactly affect accuracy since we are still not 100% confident our true mean lies in this interval.