The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow:240 350 230 260 280 320 220 310 240 310 240 230a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?b. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use alpha =0.2 Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE?c. What is the forecast for the next month?

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Based on the preceding MBE values in the attached image below, the 3-Month moving averages appear better; however, exponential smoothing was penalized by including month 2 which was difficult for any method to forecast; using only the errors for months 0 to 12, the MBE for exponential smoothing is

MSE  = 14694/9= 1632.72

exponential smoothing was better considering months 4 to 12.

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step-by-step explanation: