The tendency to have more confidence in judgment and decisions than one should, based on probability or past experience is
a. belief bias
b. overconfidence
c. confirmation bias
d. the availability heuristic

The correct answer is option b "overconfidence". Overconfidence is considered the mother of all psychological biases. This way of thinking is characterized by having more confidence in yourself that you should, since is only based on probability or past experience instead of proper research that could confirm or not the hypothesis.

Overconfidence bias is the tendency to have more confidence in judgments and decisions that we should, based on probability and past experience.

Source: Successful Management in the Digital Age by John Harte.

abraham lincoln issued the preliminary emancipation proclamation on september 22nd, 1862. it stipulated that if the southern states did not cease their rebellion by january 1st, 1863, then proclamation would go into effect.

not  

cuba  

russia  

iraq  

el salvador  

explanation:

known as the land of volcanoes, el salvador has visit seismic tremors and volcanic movement. it is the main nation in central america that does not have a coastline on the caribbean sea. about portion of all salvadorans live in the wide open. they are poor and don't have power or running water in their homes. in 1525, pedro de alvarado, a lieutenant of cortés's, vanquished el salvador. el salvador, with alternate nations of central america, pronounced its freedom from spain on sept. 15, 1821, and was a piece of a league of central american states until the point when that association broke up in 1838.