When we are trying to explain psychological phenomena, overconfidence can lead us astray. this shows that we cannot rely solely on and common sense?

This shows that we cannot rely solely on "intuition" and common sense.

We cannot rely solely on intuition and common sense because of hindsight bias, overconfidence, and perceiving order in random events.

Hindsight bias is accepting, after as of now taking in the result, that you would have predicted it. This inclination creates from blunders in memory and clarification.  

Overconfidence creates from the conviction that we know more than we really do.  

Perceiving patterns is the manner by which people attempt to comprehend our reality. Out of random occasions and events, we make associations (designs) so we can all the more likely comprehend the haphazardness of our reality.