The heat transfer depicted in the image is MOST likely

Explanation:

There are three kinds of heat transfer: conduction, convection, and radiation.

Conduction is the heat transfer by direct contact of a hot object with a cold object. It is transmitted by the vibration of the particles and not by translation motion. That is not what it is shown: the clouds are not in direct contact with the ground.

Heat transfer by convection is result of the motion of the particles in fluis, like water or air: particles move from hotter regions where they have high kinetic energy to colder regions where the particles have lower kinetic energy. Since the hotter fluids have lower density than the colder fluids, there will be a continous movement of parciles and heat. That is what is shown in the figure with the arrows.

Radiation heat transfer mechanism always occur but is only important when the temperature of the hot object is really high, like in a fire, or in a resistance to red hot, or in the Sun. The heat is radiated by infrarred radiation. That is not what is shown in the figure.

temp rises, and expansion