A model for the movement of a stock price supposes that if the present price is S then after one period, say one second, it will either go up to uS with probability p or go down to dS with probability q = 1-p. Assuming that successive movements are independent, approximate the probability that the stock price will be up by at least 5% after the next 1000 periods for u = 1.03, d = 0.96 and p = 0.6

Intersecting secant-tangent theorem states that if a tangent segment and a secant segment are drawn to a circle from an exterior point, then the square of the measure of the tangent segment is equal to the product of the measures of the secant segment and its external secant segment.so to break it down: 1. pq acts as the tangent and ps as the secant with an intersection at p.sr = 21rp = 3x + 3pq = 4x + 4following to equation: tangent squared = the two segments multiplied by each otherso (4x + 4) ^ 2 = (3x + 3) • (21) simplifies to 16x^2 - 31x - 47 = 0 or (16x - 47)(x + 1) x = -1 or x = 47/162. pq acts as the tangent and ps as the secant with an intersection at p (again! )sr = 16rp = xpq = 15(15) ^ 2 = 16 • x225 = 16xx = 225/163. the interesting chords are proportional to each other so a ratio is possible to set up: ap dp 10 3 + x = = —— = pc pb 8 xcross multiple to get 10x = (3 + x)(8)x = 12