An ideologue is certain that his position is correct. New evidence is emerging that challenges this position. There is only a 0.01% chance of such evidence emerging if the position is correct. However, there is an 95% chance of such evidence emerging if the position is not correct. Now, after such evidence has emerged, if the ideologue is Bayesian, how should this new evidence impact his position – how certain to be correct (expressed as a posterior probability) is he now? Blank 1. Fill in the blank, read surrounding text.