What challenges did the EU and NATO face in the Balkans?

As they fretted over where, after Ukraine, they would confront the next challenge from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the EU and Nato may have been looking in the wrong place. The most immediate danger now lies not in the Baltic states of north-east Europe, but in the south-east, in the Balkans.

Ever since the 1990s post-Yugoslav wars, two main factors have helped stabilise the western Balkans — the five ex-Yugoslav states that have not yet joined the EU, plus Albania. One was the prospect, however distant, of joining the EU. This has encouraged democratising reforms. The hope has been that EU membership would ultimately cement reconciliation between the peoples of the Balkans, as it did between France and Germany and other second world war foes.

The other stabilising force was US support, and the assumption that the US or Nato would intervene if conflict were to re-emerge — as they did in Bosnia in 1995 and Kosovo in 1999.

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