The bagel data also reflect how much personal mood seems to affect honesty. weather, for instance, is a major factor. unseasonably pleasant weather inspires people to pay at a higher rate. unseasonably cold weather, meanwhile, makes people cheat prolifically; so do heavy rain and wind. worst are the holidays. the week of christmas produces a 2 percent drop in payment rates—again, a 15 percent increase in theft, an effect on the same magnitude, in reverse, as that of 9/11. is nearly as bad; the week of valentine’s day is also lousy, as is the week straddling april 15. there are, however, a few good holidays: the weeks that include the fourth of july, labor day, and columbus day. the difference in the two sets of holidays? the low-cheating holidays represent little more than an extra day off from work. the high-cheating holidays are fraught with miscellaneous anxieties and the high expectations of loved ones.

the excerpt is an example of inductive reasoning because the authors

work from a generalization to formulate specific examples.

arrive at a generalization after starting with another generalization.

formulate a generalization by studying specific examples.

arrive at specific examples by studying other examples.