What is the forecast for May based on a 3 mo. weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 4, 3, 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Then forecast the same data based on utilizing exponential smoothing with and alpha of 0.35, and an initial forecast of 35.
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April
37 36 40 42 47 43
a. What is the forecast for May using a weighted moving average forecast?
b. What is the MAD of the weighted moving average forecast?
c. What is the forecast based on exponential smoothing?
d. What is the MAD of the exponential smoothing forecast?
e. What forecasting method would you choose?
Answers: 3
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