Aclassic question of logic is: which came first, the chicken or the egg? in this class, we might adapt that question for exploring the various probability distributions we’ve seen this week and last week. many things we analyze as engineers can be best understood as manifestations in the world of the probabilities these distributions describe. knowing the appropriate descriptive distribution allows us to make predictions about what has happened, or will happen, in the world. discuss how you would explain to a non-engineering manager why, when, and how you would make use of these distributions in order to solve a problem or address an opportunity. what would you need to start, and what you have after your analysis?

Aeuropean aircraft producer has spent 15 years in developing a new aircraft that would potential threaten long-lasting boeing's dominance (monopoly) in the same class of aircrafts. the new european aircraft gets high marks on all performance measures except noise. because of the noise, the european producers management is concerned that the us government may impose restrictions which would forbid their aircraft to land in some of the american airports. without restrictions the estimated (present discounted) profit would be 125 million usd. with the restrictions the profit would only be 25 million usd. the chances of both outcomes are estimated to be 50-50. management must decide now whether to the cost of redesign program problem and a 60% chance it will fail. should the european aircraft producer start the noise redesign program if they do not have any redesign parts of the aircraft to solve the noise problem. is 25 million usd. there is a 40% chance that redesign will solve the noise additional information than mentioned above? draw the decision tree, indicate probabilities and outcomes of the events * imagine that the company could find out in advance the outcome of the u.s. government's e find the expected value of perfect information about the u.s. government's decision. decision. draw a new decision tree, indicate probabilities and outcomes of the events.